Stinson vs. Pawlenty on MN economic forecast?

Who cares about facts? State Economist Tom Stinson does, reports the Star Tribune, and that has not endeared him to Governor Tim Pawlenty. As Stinson prepares to deliver the state’s semi-annual economic forecast on Wednesday (projecting expenses and revenues two years out,) Pawlenty is pooh-poohing the probable prognosis, questioning whether any forecast is reliable. Even in the short-run, however, tax revenues are running $200 million below March predictions.

The current situation, in a nutshell:

Minnesota faces a never-before-seen “structural budget deficit” that reaches far into the future, Stinson warns — a phenomenon wrought by an aging workforce and slowing revenue growth that will hamper the state’s ability to provide the services taxpayers have come to expect. There are no short-term answers, he said, and no single approach, such as tax increases or spending cuts, will by itself solve the problem. …
In his presentations, Stinson has prominently featured an uncomfortable nugget of information for government-spending-is-the-problem adherents: State and local governments take a smaller bite of Minnesotans’ personal income now than at any time in the last 15 years: 15.5 percent in 2008, down from 17.9 percent in 1993.

Stinson, who has been the state economist for two decades of DFL, GOP and Independent governors, is pretty independent himself. Back in June, he gave a comprehensive interview to Politics in Minnesota, explaining in detail why and how the recession affects Minnesota tax collection. Stinson is also a professor in the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota.

This isn’t the first time that the governor and the state economist have been at odds. Back in January, 2008, Stinson said Minnesota was in a recession. Pawlenty disagreed. According to Minnesota 2020:

While short on facts as to why he disagrees with the State Economist, Pawlenty implies that Stinson is trying to “overly scare people.”  According to Pawlenty, “Tom Stinson tends to be a bit on the pessimistic side of things, to put it charitably.”

Stuffing and starving

Minnesota is the top turkey state, according to National Geographic. Together with North Carolina, Arkansas, Missouri, Virginia, and California, we produced two out of three of the 46 million turkeys that landed on Thanksgiving tables across the country last week. The great national pig-out (bird-out?) segued naturally into Black Friday’s over-consumption, with some stores opening on Thanksgiving Day and others in the wee hours of the morning on Friday. Online sales started on Thanksgiving Day, too, with Reuters reporting big increases over last year. In-store sales rose about 0.5% on Black Friday.

NEWS DAY | Time off / Valeria Silva in St. Paul / Recruiting Somali youth? / Schools forced to borrow

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My time clock shows more than 12 hours at my “real” TCDP job and a couple more hours on the News Day blog yesterday – so today’s News Day is short, and then I’m taking a couple of days off from blogging. See you after Thanksgiving!

Recruiting Somali youth as terrorists or patriots? Federal officials charged eight people with recruiting Somali youth to return to their homeland and fight in the civil war from late 2007 to August 2008, reports the Pioneer Press. All eight of those charged on November 23 are out of the country, with one in custody in Netherlands. Ralph Boelter, the head of the FBI’s Minneapolis office, “said there were no indications those charged planned to commit any violence on U.S. soil.”

NEWS DAY | Budgets on the line / Taking food from the sick / Running around in the cold, freezing to death / Health care, Afghanistan, Philippines

Budgets on the line: Police to helpers to hospitals Police chief Tim Dolan told the Minneapolis City Council that the police department will have a budget deficit of up to $4.2 million this year, far higher than expected. The MPD annual budget is about $135 million. The Star Tribune reported that the city council reaction was strong:

NEWS DAY | Homes at risk in Minnesota / Dragons, dinosaurs and Quist / Students vs. superintendent candidate

Minnesotans losing homes A record 92,500 Minnesota homes are either in foreclosure or in danger of foreclosure, reports the Star Tribune. Altogether, that’s just over ten percent of the 900,000 home loan mortages in the state.  Some 62,000 mortgage holders were behind don their mortgages during the third quarter.

MN unemployment edges up: 7.6 percent / Policing the police in Minneapolis / TiZa hit with fines

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Minnesota’s unemployment rose to 7.6 percent in October, the Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) reported this morning. That’s up 0.2 percent from September, but still far below the national rate of 10.2 percent for October. The state added 2,200 jobs in October, with the strongest growth coming in temp jobs, especially in the professional and business sector.

NEWS DAY | MN Dept of Health withholding H1N1 clinic info / Above average, but slipping / Stupid criminals on YouTube / Omar Jamal

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Want flu shot info? MN Dept of Health won’t tell you More H1N1 vaccine has been shipped to Minnesota, but the news has been kept quiet by the Minnesota Health Department, reports MPR:

But up to this point, the vaccine distribution process here has been shrouded in secrecy. Some Minnesota clinics have withheld information from the public about their vaccine supplies. And the state Health Department has deliberately kept quiet about which clinics and hospitals have received doses. …
The Minnesota Department of Health has encouraged clinics to be cautious about promoting their vaccine supplies publicly. In fact, as of today, the agency still refuses to publish a list of providers that have received the vaccine.

NEWS DAY | Who’s running, who’s winning / A new way to give / What’s with mammograms?

A short News Day post today – too much time reporting on SPPS school superintendent candidates!

Who’s running, who’s winning? A new Rasmussen poll shows Norm Coleman leading other GOP gubernatorial hopefuls, according to Politics in Minnesota. Norm gets 50% of Republican support, even though he hasn’t said he is running, followed by “undecided” at 26% and trailed by Marty Seifert with 11%. On the DFL side, former Senator Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak are tied, with 30% each, followed by “undecided” at 20%, Margaret Kelliher at 85 and Matt Entenza at 6%.

Meanwhile, in greater Minnesota, five-term GOP State Senator Steve Dille is stepping down next year, apparently giving in to pressure from the right wing of his party. His five terms in the Minnesota Senate followed three terms in the house. Hard to believe that Dille, who once famously proposed a state-sponsored dating service for unwed mothers (to get them off public assistance by getting them husbands) is too far left for the GOP — but that’s the buzz. Hal Kimball, who once ran against Dille, calls him “a mild-mannered, principled, consensus seeking public figure.”

And in the suburbs, a second Democrat has thrown her hat in the ring to run against first-term U.S. Representative Erik Paulsen. MPR reports that Maureen Hackett, a physician and forensic psychiatrist from Minnetonka, joins Jim Meffert, president of the Minnesota PTA as a DFL hopeful.

A new way to give GiveMN.org is a leader in new, locally-focused giving efforts. The new website offers people an opportunity to browse Minnesota charities and nonprofits, or to give to their favorite nonprofit with no strings attached, and no bite taken out of the charitable dollar. Potentially, GiveMN.org could allow nonprofits to receive donations without setting up their own secure online systems. The focus on local giving is also attractive to many.

Today GiveMN.org is using a matching grant from the St. Paul Foundation to increase the amount of any donation made between 8 a.m. November 17 and 8 a.m. November 18. It’s getting lots of traffic, with donations slow this morning because of the amount of donating going on. I gave – how about you?

What’s with mammograms? A new government study says women under 50 don’t need mammograms, but the American Cancer Society says they do. Why the different recommendations?

• Risk factors Everyone agrees that women with higher risk factors should have annual mammograms. This includes women with a family history of breast cancer.

• Ages 40-49 The DHHS says the risks of mammograms outweigh the harms in this age group. Mammograms do save lives. But, says DHHS, the few lives saved are outweighed by the risk of psychological trauma from false positives and unneeded treatments. ACS stands by its recommendation for annual mammograms for this age group, and more than a few women think that saving lives is more important than saving women from worrying about false positives.

• Ages 50-74 The Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) and the American Cancer Society (ACS) agree that mammograms save lives for women aged 50-74. Both groups recommend mammograms for these women, with DHHS saying that every other year is good enough, and ACS recommending annual mammograms.

• Ages 75 and older The DHHS report says that there is insufficient evidence to show whether mammograms offer any benefit to women 75 and older. The ACS recommends annual mammograms for all women over 40.

• Breast Self Exams The DHHS report says there is no evidence that teaching Breast Self Exams (BSE) reduces breast cancer mortality. It also analyzes the importance of Clinical Breast Exams (CBE), and finds insufficient evidence to make a recommendation.

NEWS DAY | Cat fight in TC media world / Pawlenty and health care / Making prisoners pay / more

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Cat fight in TC media world David Brauer gleefully reports that the Strib publisher was taking potshots at MPR yesterday, just before today’s scheduled MPR forum on the future of news. A Strib article quoted Mike Sweeney, chair of the Star Tribune board on MPR’s expansion plans and its sponsorship of the forum:

NEWS DAY | UnitedHealth vs. health care reform / Tale of two “students” / Joking judge crosses line / Selling cheap, making money / Pakistan bombing

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UnitedHealth vs. health care reform Minnetonka-based UnitedHealth is trying to turn employees into lobbyists, urging them to write to senators and newspapers to stop the health care reform bill, reports the Star Tribune.

In an aggressive new effort to influence the congressional health care debate, UnitedHealth Group this week e-mailed its 75,000 U.S. employees, urging them to contact their senators and providing two form letters attacking specific legislative proposals.

In addition, the Minnetonka-based insurer urged employees to write letters to local newspapers and then share those letters with the company’s lobbying arm.